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Syria Sitrep - Turkey's War In Idleb

30-4-2018 < Blacklisted News 44 794 words
 

The Syrian government issued Property Law 10 (ar) which will help to rebuild the country. Martin Chulov of the Guardian falsely reported: 10m Syrians at risk of forfeiting homes under new property law. The Syrian-American economist Ehsani explains why the Guardian report is wrong. He summarizes:



Without legislation, imagine people returning to say Jobar in Damascus or Bustan al-Basha in Aleppo and starting to build on their own. What code? What property lines? What legal basis? What about the infrastructure underneath? Law 10 is the State's legislative blueprint.



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In 2012 UN blue helmets from Austria  controlled the demarcation line with Israel at the Golan heights. They watched as Takfiris ('smugglers'), likely coming from Israel, set up an ambush. Nine Syrian border policemen pass through the UN checkpoint but are not warned. They drive into the Takfiri ambush. All are killed. An Austrian whistle-blower gave the video(ger) to a local paper in Vienna. The Austrian Defense Ministry is investigating the case.


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Today tribal forces aligned with the Syrian government attacked and captured two villages(map) controlled by the U.S. proxy force in east Syria north of the Euphrates near Deir Ezzor city. The Kurdish U.S. proxy forces SDF vowed revenge. This might be a local incident but could develop into something bigger. While the U.S. claims exclusive rights north of the Euphrates and to fight ISIS in the area zero progress has been made since November. The U.S. wants keep ISIS alive and well to later reuse it for its own purposes. The Syrian government is trying to disrupt that plan.


The Palestinian refugee camp Yarmouk, a southern suburb of Damascus, is held by ISIS and some other Takfiri groups.The Syrian army surrounded it and is attacking it with full force. Today all groups but ISIS agreed to either leave Yarmouk to Idelb (Jaish al-Islam) or Daraa (Jaish Ababil Huran) or to reconcile with the Syrian government. ISIS plans to fight to death in the densely upbuild area. Only few civilians are left and the Syrian army will not risk high casualties for the otherwise empty city. The ISIS fighters will be bombed and shelled to smithereens.


While one part of the Syrian army is eliminating ISIS in Yarmouk another part has moved north towards Homs and might go further up to Idleb.


Meanwhile the Turks are trying to tackle the al-Qaeda (aka Jabhat al-Nusra aka Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) problem in Idelb province. Erdogan's long term plan is to annex Idleb governorate for Turkey. But as long as al-Qaeda controls the governorate and city Turkey can not claim that the 'de-escalation zone' is off-limits for Syrian government attacks. It needs to hide or eliminate al-Qaeda and any other group that can be painted as 'terrorist'.



Map by Tomasz Rolbiecki - bigger

A while ago the 'western' aligned Crisis Group devised a plan for Erdogan:



What should be done?  Turkey should deploy along the front line in cooperation with Russia, which should press the Syrian regime to delay, or even desist from, its assault. This would buy time for renewed Turkish efforts to curtail transnational jihadist influence within HTS in favour of militants more open to de-escalation and compromise.



First Turkey tried to 'curtail' al-Qaeda by open force. In February 'Syrian rebel' groups under Turkish control launched a war on al-Qaeda in Idleb. It was waged over two month and sent more than 1,000 'rebels' an both sides to hell. Al-Qaeda held on to its position and even made some gains. A week ago a ceasefire was arranged but that did not suffice the Turkish plans. The al-Qaeda problem is still there.


Yesterday an UAE journo pointed to this report and wrote:



Hassan Hassan حَسَنْ @hxhassan - 12:32 UTC- 28 Apr 2018


Turkish officials met with leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Nusra) and gave them an ultimatum to save Idlib: either dissolve the group & individually join other groups, or Turkey will throw its full weight behind other groups to fight it.



The 'full weight' would likely include Turkish troops but no air support as Russia controls the airspace in west-Syria. But Turkey also has other means. During the last 48 hours more than 30 mid-level leaders of al-Qaeda in Syria and of other groups resistant to Turkish pressure were assassinated by IEDs or 'unknown gunmen'. The Turkish friendly propaganda claims that ISIS sleeper cells are the culprit. I believe that the assassination campaign is the work of the Turkish secret service MIT.


How will al-Qaeda respond? Will it submit to the will of the wannabe Caliph Erdogan or will it fight?


Turkey has several small static observation posts around Idleb. These need to be supplied. If al-Qaeda, which controls the border to Turkey, cuts off Turkish supplies, what will Erdogan do? What if al-Qaeda takes the fight into Turkey?


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