from Silver Doctors:

SD Outlook: It’s actually looking pretty good for gold & silver this week. Here’s the details…

Next week is the two day FOMC meeting followed by a press conference. Presumably there will be a 25 basis point rate “hike” on Wednesday, June 13th at 2:00 p.m. EST.

The markets are giving the odds of a rate hike of over 90%.

Why am I mentioning next week for this week’s SD Outlook? The week before the Fed meets, there is generally what can be described as “radio silence” by the Fed.

The logic goes like this: The Fed doesn’t want to spook the markets, or have to do circles because the markets don’t interpret an interview/statement “correctly”.

So we have basically a silence from the “jawboning”.

Thank God. Oh yeah, and good riddance to NY Fed Head Dudley who refuses to answer questions on gold!

That said, no need in putting up the events calendar this first full week of June, because other than trade data on Wednesday, there isn’t a whole lot of action.

Which brings us to the political and geopolitical fronts.

Politics can be even more dangerous for the markets than the Fed can.

Why?

Politics can be unpredictable at times, a stark comparison to the highly choreographed Fed of the last decade.

And Gold & silver feed off of uncertainty and unpredictability.

Ok, “What’s your point Half Dollar, you’re just running around in circles on your outlook?”.

My point is that while the mainstream news, and especially the mainstream financial news, will be looking for things to cover, with the lack of Fed action and a light calendar, the MSM will be poking and prodding for stories that may speak to a kind of political and geo-political uncertainty.

Here’s a few off the top of my head:

Italy is far from resolved, and in addition to finance and the euro, the Italians just started talking immigration/migrant crisis.
Spain is back in the spotlight after ousting Rajoy in a vote of no confidence, and while a new Prime Minister is sworn in, Pedro Sanchez, to simply state that Spain is solved would be to also fall in the Italy trap.
President Trump steps up the trade war rhetoric this week.

All of this brings me to a larger point: Don’t be surprised if the fundamentals assert themselves this week, and we see some decent price action in the metals.

Now we have some headwinds to work though, particularly the summer doldrums.

They say past performance is not indicative of future results, but I’d like to point out a couple of things on the silver chart from over the last year.

Behold the June beat-down and July rally:

The Fed hiked last June, and coming into early July, silver began a rally of over 20% in short order. A 20% rally coming off of wherever this short-term bottom is will put us squarely staring down $20.

Also note the low on that chart. That’s a print in which we nearly lost $15 last year.

Here’s my thinking – the rate hike is already priced in. I mean, this is, after all, the sideways channel of pure agony we are talking about, and crude oil was in the low $42 range last year, and surly any lag between now and then has also worked itself though the system as well.

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