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When Will Gold’s “Summer Doldrums” End? History Says Pretty Soon

12-6-2018 < SGT Report 55 316 words
 

by John Rubino, Dollar Collapse:


This has been a uniquely boring stretch for gold and silver – especially considering all the things going on in the world that ought to light a fire under precious metals. In just the past few weeks, the US started a global trade war, Italy elected a populist government, emerging markets descended into yet another crisis, and inflation has risen from the dead – all of which would be expected to spook normal financial markets and send capital pouring into safe havens. But not this time, which leaves precious metals under the control of seasonal factors that have over the years generated the “sell in May and go away” rule-of-thumb.


So when do the summer doldrums end? Based on recent history, December is a pretty good bet. The arrows on the following chart mark the beginning of each year since 2014. Note how gold’s price frequently starts moving up either then or a few weeks before, in early December. This seasonal strength is due to Asian buying in anticipation of weddings and harvests, and though you’d think traders would anticipate – and therefore cancel – the cycle’s impact, it still seems to operate.



Prior to 2014 the pattern was slightly different. Here’s a chart from Casey Research showing gold’s average performance for each month between 1975 and 2013. September was by far the best month to buy, with January the second best, implying a eight-month window beginning in July in which buying was rewarded with at least short-term gains.



If the second pattern re-emerges, then we really don’t have long to wait at all. Maybe one more month and at most three, and gold bugs can start having fun again.


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