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Kavanaugh and Probabilities

18-9-2018 < SGT Report 29 769 words
 

by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:



Ah, so now we have it



Ford, a 51-year-old registered Democrat who has published in academic journals and has trained students in clinical psychology, described the alleged incident in The Washington Post on Sunday, saying it occurred during a summer day in the 1980s at a Maryland house where teens had gathered. Ford claimed she headed upstairs to a bathroom when she was suddenly pushed onto a bed, as rock-and-roll music blared.


However, Ford told The Post she did not recall exactly who owned the house, how she came to be at the house, or how the gathering was arranged. She remembered only that the house was in Montgomery County, near a country club, and that parents were not present.



So she doesn’t know who’s house it was, why she was there, what the “gathering” was about (gee, I wonder.)



Now let’s deal with FeinSwine first.  If, and I stress if, this accusation is truthful Feinswine should be drawn and quartered for sitting on it for two months.  In fact such is misprision of a felony, a crime itself, and for that the prime bitch employing alleged Chinese spies should go to prison — right now.


But back to the claimed accusation.


There are several possibilities:


1. She was assaulted, and by Kavanaugh.  In other words, her account is accurate.


2. She was not assaulted; the “playing around” was sexual, was consensual at some point, she stopped consenting and so did the sexual escapades while her clothes were still on.  But now, being a hard-left “professor”, an avowed activist who has attempted to conceal that fact by sanitizing her social media (gee, why, if it’s not material?) she suddenly changes her mind about kissing a boy and playing “grinder” with him 35 years later.


3. She was assaulted but it was not Kavanaugh and 35 years later he’s convenient to attack because she hates him and his political stance; 35 years prior he was perhaps somewhere within 10 or 20 miles at the time and he can’t prove otherwise.


4. There was a party, she was (perhaps) drinking, others were (probably) drinking, everyone had fun and went home, but she was bent about words exchanged or being jilted and turned it into “assaulted” over the space of 35 years.  Think that doesn’t happen?  Yes it does, and it sometimes doesn’t take 35 years either; who remembers the Duke LaCrosse team accused by a stripper of gang-rape that, by all evidence, never happened at all?  Or shall we discuss Tawana Brawley?


Note that none of those means you fail a polygraph, by the way — especially if you have months to study for it and practice — and are trained in psychological responses.  Nor do we have the questions and the raw data.  So the value of said “event” (the polygraph) is zero.  The best polygraphs are not infallible — and when taken by the interested party with a hand-picked examiner and questions are in fact worthless.


The other person accused of being there denies that anything of that sort ever happened at all.  In other words, not 1 or 2.  Either 3, 4, or it was made up entirely.


Now add into the mix this: The alleged “victim” has more animus and thus reason to lie as a consequence of her political orientation and advocacy than did the Duke LaCrosse stripper.  That may have simply been a matter of not getting a “respectful enough” tip for her dancing gig.


Finally, it appears she told nobody at the time — not even her best (female) friend.  How many women tell nobody about an incomplete assault like this — or any other incident when they have a bad time at a party?  None.  Ever.  Unless they have no friends.  But I’ll assume she did, and like every other young woman of that time and the current time, told her bestie(s) everything.  Especially something like this.  If it happened, that is.


If you need more, there is more — while she apparently spoke of being attacked in her “late teen years” twice in therapy, once in 2012 in marriage counseling and again (to apparently someone different and in individual therapy) in 2013 in neither of these cases did she name Kavanaugh.  In general clinical psychologists keep pretty good notes — that’s part of their job.  And then there are the internal inconsistencies; 15 is not “late teens”, for example.


And for the final bit of eyebrow-raising, in what has to be the most-amazing and bizarre coincidence ever, there are reports that Kavanaugh’s mother, who is also a Judge, was the judge who heard a foreclosure case on the accuser’s parents. What are the odds that this is mere coincidence and not part of animus this woman has toward Kavanaugh personally to motivate a slanderous smear?


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