Larry first explains that he doesn’t do polls. He uses actual numbers –

1) Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls.

Yes, from time to time I will post one for those of you who do. But we're WAY past polls now because we have actual NUMBERS.

2) A poll is a sample of opinions that cost nothing to give.

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 17, 2018

Larry explains that he examines ballot requests and ballot returns by party and in 2016 party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew [Research] and that party switchers in 2016 were 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats voting Republican –

6) I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew—very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018

So Larry compared the current numbers to 2016 –

7) But then you need to compare the current numbers to something. The rule of thumb is you never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.

Guess what I did?

I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018

In four states where there are already a large number of ballot requests (Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa) so far Republicans are exceeding 2016 –

8) So, in four sample states where we are already seeing large #s of ballot requests—AZ, FL, OH, and IA—and which have very different voting patterns, I have found that so far (and anything can change—but usually the patterns hold) the Republicans are exceeding their #s

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018

Results are very good for Republicans –

8) contd . . . from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.

9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers "Ravi" and "SpeedyInTexas" and "Ohio Wan" and "The Accountant" and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performance

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018

Democrats are behind 2016 Presidential year numbers so far and Republicans are ahead – this is not supposed to happen –

10) One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year. But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.

11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also . . . .

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018

Schweikart takes some isolated examples across the states he tested and all the results show very positive results for Republicans. Also, the good news is that many people have already voted. Because of this the Republicans are ahead by a large margin and Democrats have a real challenge in overcoming early voting on election day. Schweikart says his model may be incorrect but the numbers are really solid right now.

Time will tell tell but it is beginning to look like a giant red wave is coming.