After a prolonged countdown towards the contentious delivery of the Russian S-400 to Turkey, per announcement by Turkey’s government officials, the first batch of system parts arrives in Turkey today, July 12, 2019.

Meanwhile, Israel media hints at the “Real” reasons for the grand geopolitical oddities that have been taking place in the midst of posturing between Turkey and the U.S.  over the S-400. Why has Turkey’s currency managed to remain steady, even gaining value, during the supposed US sanctions threats? How is the US posturing on removing F-35 parts production from Turkey contradicted by the US Joint Strike Fighter Program Executives? What kind of contribution is expected from Russia to contain the situation per agreement with the United States?

The real Russia-Turkey-USA agreement on the dog-and-pony S-400 show we’ve been watching was in place over two months ago. I covered the outlines of the deal on May 7, 2019 here and here. The real answers to the above geopolitical questions do not come from the mainstream media, but from the MIC mega players and Israeli intelligence-analysts. And of course, through Newsbud. Here are my answers to these questions reporting from Turkey with intelligence sources in the region and beyond.

The most logical answers come from Israel, buried in the middle of mainstream media misinformation and spins - Turkey’s tacit agreement made with the United States behind the scenes and Russia’s agreement with the US to help keep the Turkey S-400 situation contained. Here’s how:

Let’s begin with one of the most significant questions: Why have the US sanction threats all along been all talk and no action? Behind all the brouhaha there was the following tacit agreement between the US and Turkey: the US allowing Turkey to put on a grand show, feigning toughness and independence, by actually receiving S-400 parts while sticking to its quietly made agreement to leave it at that- boxes of S-400 parts stored with no complete installation and definitely NO activation. Indefinitely. Here comes Israel’s Jerusalem Post with a strong hint:

It may be that the component arrives, but then the US and Turkey discuss whether the system is “set up” or if it is “operational,” with the US redline always moving as the system is slowly put together and Turkish forces trained to use it.

Of course, for this agreement, Russia appears to have signaled being on board- as I have indicated in my previous analyses, one of Russia’s bargaining chips to gain is Idlib, Syria. Here is another hint from TJP:

Russia has a habit of sending systems to countries and then waiting a while to have them go online. For instance, Russia sent the S-300 to Syria last October, but it is still sitting in northern Syria, apparently not operational or semi-operational. So it could be another year of Turkish-US bragging and threats about the S-400 deal before anything actually happens.

Meaning Russia will do its part- from delaying and dragging the installation stage to training the Turkish S-400 operators. Russia began training them only recently (In May 2019). The process can take anywhere between six months to over a year.  The Turkish Defense Minister has also stated, more than once, that Turkey will not start installing the S-400 system until after October this year:

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has said the country will begin the installation of Russian-made S-400 antiaircraft missile systems in October 2019, state media reported.

Most importantly, in the last few days, as he continued his posturing on the S-400 conflict with the U.S., Turkey’s President  began emphasizing that Turkey would not activate the S-400 unless and until there was an actual attack. To say it another way: The S-400 parts would sit in their boxes in Air Force storage facilities inactive; without being actually installed:

This is an air defense system. As such, we will activate this system if we were to come under any attack. This is why we have made such an investment.

Even further glaring is how U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham suddenly changed the sanction criteria from “If S-400 delivered to Turkey” to “If Turkey actually activates S-400”. A major position change signaling the behind-the-scenes deal with Turkey and practically reducing the chances of sanctions against Turkey to zero. Here’s Sen. Graham in a direct quote (emphasis in bold mine):

If Turkey activates the S-400 missile battery they bought from the Russians, sanctions would be required under law. And we also, a couple of days ago, passed legislation banning the sale of the F-35 to Turkey if they activate the Russian S-400 missile battery . . .

To recap, US shifting its sanctions’ threats Red-Line against Turkey over S-400 from “delivery” to “activation”. A major shift, indeed.

Another indicator of back-door deals between Turkey and the U.S. came from the Deep State Military Industrial Complex (MIC) operators pretty much ruling out the possibility of the US taking away its F-35 parts-production contract facilities and businesses from Turkey. Here’s the Joint Strike Fighter Program Executive Officer Vice Adm. Mat Winter in an interview with Air Force Magazine:

The Joint Program Office endorses keeping Turkey as an F-35 partner despite concerns about that country buying a Russian-made missile defense system,

The facts are that Turkey produces 844 parts for me, and they are quality parts, affordable parts, and delivered on time.

Turkey ‘s industrial establishment for F-35 is one of my best partners, and they do great work.

Turkey to remain a committed partner, and we are continuing to execute the program of record, with Turkey participation, in providing their aircraft, establishing their footprint, and preparing for their arrival of aircraft in-country next November.

Repeating this again: The real movers and shakers, the real decision-makers in the USA, the MIC moguls, are saying that they are going to keep Turkey as their F-35 partner despite S-400 delivery – with activation still remaining as out of the question per real agreements behind-the-scenes- between Turkey and the United States.

I am going to take a pause and note again- these factual jewels have been kept out of the misinformation and spin mainstream media coverage. I am the only one providing you with all the facts in one place here.

As I have repeatedly stated, keeping an eye on currency as a solid indicator is a must when it comes to geopolitical cases such as Turkey-Russia-US S-400 crises for show only. During this last for-show-only countdown, sanctions threats, tough-talk and posturing period the Turkish currency, TL, has not only remained fairly stable, but it has gained value. Had the sanction threats been real, had there been no behind-closed-doors deal between the U.S. and Turkey, this would not have happened. Especially considering Turkey’s current economic state. Again, I invite you to read my original analysis on Turkey-US-S400 published 69 days ago (over 2 months ago) here. I had written that analysis within a few days after Turkey-US-Russia hushed deals with predictions based on my sources and analyses reporting on the ground in Turkey. At the time of this breaking analysis, in fact, during the last few weeks, Turkish currency has been stable in and around 5.7 per US Dollar.

As for Russia’s Syria objectives, there are indicators showing actual progress towards a post-war new constitution in Syria. A major indicator in a new Russia-USA not-talked-about agreement is major revamp in Syria’s military and security echelons, per Russia’s directive to diminish Iran’s role:

The latest appointments and changes in the top echelons of Syria’s military and security institutions have been viewed in the region as the result of Russian military pressure on Damascus. It's likely that Moscow does indeed seek to transform Syria's security institutions and to diminish Iranian influence in the country. However, the actual role of Russia should not be overestimated. Such staff-related changes are frequently due to the Syrian regime’s efforts to redistribute authority and, possibly, to receive benefits from foreign actors amid controversies between Damascus' allies.

Noteworthy was the appointment of Maj. Gen. Ali Mamlouk, a Sunni and the head of the National Security Bureau, for security affairs (emphasis mine).

… in spite of sanctions, Mamlouk has repeatedly traveled abroad for negotiations, to Europe, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt and Turkey. Furthermore, in June 2018, he was involved in a dialogue with US intelligence. Mamlouk has earned a reputation for being able to maneuver between various centers of powers, though his alleged recent appointment may be interpreted in different ways.

During the last week one headline after another has been hinting at a US-Russia new agreement on Iran: US, Russia Agree to Weaken Iran, Fight Qaeda in Syria However, the brakes are still on the agreement between the US and Russia on Turkey, including the S-400. And as I’ve emphasized before, that agreement will most definitely involve Idlib-Syria.

For now, all the facts and indicators on the ground, including information from my sources via seeped intel from the US and Israel, point to the validity of a behind-the-scenes agreement between Turkey and the United States on how the S-400 play is designed to play out, and a tacit wink and deals with Russia playing its part.

In the coming days we’ll be seeing much in terms of dog-and-pony shows in Turkish and Western Mainstream media outlets on the S-400. As usual their coverage will be geared towards putting more smoke in the geopolitical mirrors room. With that said, there is one place you know you can tune into for the real facts and the explanation of the real games- Newsbud.

*The majority of my coverage will be for our subscribing community members here. We have a special discounted annual Newsbud membership campaign for this summer. You can subscribe here:

Annual Membership Campaign

Sibel Edmonds is editor and publisher of Newsbud, founder and president of the National Security Whistleblowers Coalition (NSWBC), and author of the acclaimed book Classified Woman: The Sibel Edmonds Story, and The Lone Gladio, a Political Spy Thriller. She has appeared on national radio and TV as a commentator on matters related to whistleblowers, national security, and excessive secrecy & classification. She is the recipient of the 2006 PEN/Newman’s Own First Amendment Award. Ms. Edmonds is a certified linguist, fluent in four languages, and has an MA in public policy from George Mason University and a BA in criminal justice and psychology from George Washington University.