State Leading Indicators
An analysis of State Leading Indicators by the Philadelphia Fed suggests nine states will be in contraction within six months.
by Mish Shedlock, The Maven:
State Leading Indicators
An analysis of State Leading Indicators by the Philadelphia Fed suggests nine states will be in contraction within six months.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the leading indexes for the 50 states for November 2019. The indexes are a six-month forecast of the state coincident indexes (also released by the Bank). Forty-one state coincident indexes are projected to grow over the next six months, and nine are expected to decrease. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar leading index for its U.S. coincident index, which is projected to grow 1.4 percent over the next six months.
Philadelphia Fed Region
Those three states are in the Philadelphia Fed region. The Fed provided no details on the other states.
State Leading Index Map
Bloomberg reports Nine States Face Economic Contraction, Most Since 2009 Crisis
State Projections
The Bloomberg article noted that Iowa and New Hampshire are expected to see marginal growth over the next few months. Thus, New Hampshire must be at the bottom end of its range.
Rising Initial Claims
I picked this idea up from Daniele DiMartino Booth.
@Quillintel has been at the forefront of this trend as we track the breadth of states with rising initial & continuing claims on a weekly basis. In December, nearly 2/3rds of states had rising initial claims YoY. https://t.co/xdrNQNFMNm
ht @TechQn pic.twitter.com/5eEAsMVaRV
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) January 3, 2020
Booth notes that “In December, nearly 2/3rds of states had rising initial claims YoY.”
Election Significance
I took a lot of flack from Trump supporters over my December 30 post Trump Will Easily Be Defeated in 2020, Perhaps a Landslide
But I stand by it. One of my reasons was the economy. Specifically, I stated “Trump’s trade policy has been a disaster to both farmers and the steel industry. Farming woes are well understood, but steel is another matter.”
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