by Daisy Luther, The Organic Prepper:

As confirmed cases of Covid-19 pop up around the United States, it appears that containment efforts have failed.

Over the weekend, the number of confirmed cases in the United States rose to 88. People have tested positive for coronavirus in the following states:  Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida, Texas, and Oregon. Two people in Washington have died and it is believed that the virus may have been spreading through the state undetected for six weeks now. The case in Texas is an evacuee who was “mistakenly” released from a quarantine facility by the CDC. The case in New York is a woman who resides in Manhattan who had recently visited Iran.

Diamond Princess evacuees who have tested negative are due to be released from quarantine today, but some cases with incubation that lasted as long as 27 days have many wondering if the 14-day quarantine is long enough.

The virus has prompted some school closures in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Rhode Island. Thousands of Americans are self-quarantined. California, Washington, and Oregon have reported “community spread,” which means that investigators are unable to figure out where patients have contracted the virus. Community spread is generally a turning point in an outbreak that means the illness is uncontained.

An explosion in purchases of essential items like food and toilet paper took place all over the country this weekend as people began to become more aware of the need to be prepared to stay home for a period of time. (If you need more information about getting prepared for quarantines, read this article and get this book.)

A series of errors by the CDC is part of the failure

The CDC failed to follow guidelines laid out by the World Health Organization and developed its own test. Unfortunately, that test was faulty, putting the nation weeks behind in detected cases.

As a result, until Wednesday the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration only allowed those state labs to use the test — a decision with potentially significant consequences. The lack of a reliable test prevented local officials from taking a crucial first step in coping with a possible outbreak — “surveillance testing” of hundreds of people in possible hotspots. Epidemiologists in other countries have used this sort of testing to track the spread of the disease before large numbers of people turn up at hospitals. (source)

According to ProPublica, the CDC promised on February 14 to begin surveillance testing in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, but this testing has not yet begun. As I wrote last week, I don’t believe the official numbers are reflective of the actual cases because of narrow guidelines about who can be tested, the faulty tests, and the complete lack of tests in many areas.

Vice President Pence said over the weekend that 75,000 more testing kits will be made available this week. He also seems to be loosening the criteria to be tested, telling Jake Tapper in an interview, “…we’ve established a process in a number of cities across the country where if somebody presents at the local hospital with a respiratory ailment, we want them also tested for coronavirus.”

Don’t be surprised to see a sharp increase in cases once more tests become available. This won’t necessarily mean that the illness is spreading faster – it just means that people will be diagnosed instead of being told they have the flu and getting sent home to spread it further.

What happens next

Federal and local governments will try to mitigate the spread. Expect to see more quarantines, workplace and school closures, and cancellations of public gatherings.

As other countries hard hit by coronavirus cancel public activities and shutter schools, HHS Secretary Azar said such measures could be part of the containment toolkit here, if needed.

Keeping kids home from school and running workplaces on a skeleton staff is part of what experts call “social distancing,” a way to keep people from passing disease to one another. As recently as 2009, a flu pandemic led to school closures in many U.S. communities.

“It can be indicated under certain circumstances that it might make sense to close a school or schools, or take other measures like that,” said Azar. In the U.S. that would be a decision made at the local level. (source)

There will be a lot of personal economic ramifications to this.

First, it means that there could be a lot of people not getting paid. Here’s some information on how to prepare for the financial consequences of a potential quarantine or workplace closure. If you are quarantined and your workplace isn’t closed, you may have some protection under the law to be sure that you keep your job according to this article on Forbes. It will also mean childcare issues for those who still need to be at work but whose children are unable to attend school.

Shortages will become more obvious soon.

N-95 masks won’t be the only thing in short supply soon. As people clear the shelves in supermarkets and general merchandise stores across the country, some of that inventory may not be replaced quickly. Mainstream sources suggest we could see bare shelves in mid-April, but I suspect after the weekend’s buying frenzy, our just-in-time supply chain could begin to fray as early as this week.

Part of this is the fact that so much of our merchandise originates in China. (Here’s a list of things that could soon be in short supply.) The problem is two-fold. First, factories have been shuttered as millions of Chinese people in numerous cities have been quarantined for more than a month, so production has ground to a halt. Secondly, shipping has seriously declined – world ports are already seeing an impact.

So even those who have money could soon have difficulty finding the products they want.

If you haven’t stocked up, now is the time to do so. The supply chain is showing its first signs of wear and it could be months (at the least) before it bounces back.

The economy shows all the signs of a pending recession.

Investors are bracing themselves for a bad week in the market. The travel sector and shipping industry are due to lose billions if the current trends continue. Economists warn we could be looking at a full-blown recession.

Consumer spending, says the Washington Post, has propped up the US economy for a decade. With potential job losses and income interruptions, people will (wisely) pull back from non-essential spending.

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