by Egon Von Greyerz, Gold Switzerland:

This is it! The party is over. The world is now facing the gravest economic and social downturn in Modern Times (18th century). We are now entering a period of global crisis that will change the world for a very long time to come. This should come as no surprise to the people who have studied history and also read my articles for the last few years. Many others have also warned about the same thing. But since MSM never talks about the excesses in the world or the risks, 99.9% of people are totally unprepared for what is coming next.

THE 4,000 POINT FALL IN THE DOW IS THE MERE BEGINNING

The 14% fall in the Dow last week and similar in many markets around the world is the mere beginning. I warned investors about this stock collapse in recent weeks. In my article on Jan 26, I wrote “Stock Collapse and Gold Surge Imminent” and again on Feb 9, I said “The Crisis will Propel Gold and Sink Stocks”. We have last week seen the beginning of the stock collapse with a 4,000 point fall in the Dow. The gold surge is still to come. We are likely to see further strong falls in stocks very soon.

Fundamentally, it has been clear for quite some time that stocks and the world economy are at the end of a secular bull market. The falls in the last week have confirmed that the party is over and that we are now starting a secular bear market that will affect the world for years and maybe decades.

THE DOW UP 40X IN 40 YEARS

The era of printed money and unlimited credit driving asset prices to ever dizzier heights is now over. If we take the Dow as one example, it has gone up 40x in the last 40 years. The average annual return has been 11.53% including reinvested dividends. This means that an investor in the Dow has doubled his money every 6 years, on average, over a 40 year period! So $25,000 invested in 1980 would be $2 million today.

The coming downturn will not take 40 years. When bubbles burst, everything unravels very quickly. It could take say 3-7 years for the Dow to come down 90% or more. In 1929-32 it took less than 3 years for the Dow to fall 90%. And the situation today is much more serious when it comes to overvaluations, debts, deficits etc.

STOCKS BONDS AND PROPERTY DOWN >90%

So the coming economic downturn will see all bubble assets like stocks, bonds and property decline at least 90% in real terms. But although markets might bottom within say the next 5 years, the world economy might go along the bottom for a very long time, which could be decades. As always, historians will let the world know afterwards the extent of the coming downturn.

The chart below shows potential targets for the Dow. In my view the 1970-80 level is more likely than the 2003-9 one.

CORONAVIRUS IS NOT THE CAUSE BUT THE CATALYST

Investors are obviously linking the stock market crashes to the Coronavirus but we must remember that the virus is not the cause of the falls but only the catalyst. Stocks around the world have been overvalued on many criteria for quite some time.

The majority of people today are not worried about stocks but instead about the Coronavirus. Most of us don’t understand it since authorities around the world suppress the truth when it comes to numbers of infected and fatalities. China seems never to have told the truth about the virus and many countries have followed suit.

The pandemic is spreading exponentially and it can take 3-4 weeks before it breaks out from the time you are infected. In that time every infected person can meet many hundreds of people. In Italy for example, there were no cases a few days ago and it jumped to 150 in a couple of days and now 2,500 are reported to have caught the disease with 80 deaths.

In Switzerland only 12 cases are reported but that will multiply quickly. All public events in Switzerland with more than 1,000 people have been banned. The Geneva International Motor Show due to start on Monday has been cancelled.

Read More @ GoldSwitzerland.com