(Natural News) We are now releasing the downloadable Pandemic Projection Model (“Adams Model”) spreadsheet, Revision 2, with new features:
You can alter the starting assumption values to test different scenarios of where the coronavirus pandemic goes in any given nation or population region.
Fields that can be altered include R0 value, mortality rate, and # of infected individuals on day one.
New feature: “Social distancing suppression” value allows you to suppress new infections by a percentage you choose. This helps take into account school closures, travel bans and personal contact habits which are already being altered.
You can now download the spreadsheet at this link:
The file format is .xls, compatible with MS Excel and Apache Open Office (free software from Apache).
You will also need to unzip the zip file, of course, after you download it. You can use a utility like 7-zip (7-zip.org) to achieve this.
Once you download the spreadsheet, you may immediately begin altering several variables to test the outcomes they will produce. All rows showing # of infections, # of deaths, etc., are automatically updated (as in any spreadsheet based on relational formulas).
If you use this spreadsheet or cite its numbers, please give credit to Mike Adams, Pandemic.news / NaturalNews.com.
New projections show only 1.1 million deaths in the USA by July 4th if social distancing achieves 25% suppression
The projections of this Revision 2 spreadsheet typically do not match Revision 1, since we have simplified some of the calculations. This has resulted in typically a lower total fatality projection. One piece of good news in this projection is that if you enter an R0 value of 2.4, and use a social distancing suppression value of 25%, there are only 1.1 million deaths in the USA by July 4th.
You are free to modify the values in the spreadsheet yourself, and to republish the spreadsheet as long as you give proper credit to the author.
If you notice any calculation modeling errors in the spreadsheet, please inform us via the NaturalNews.com feedback form so we can improve it for Revision 3.
Additional assumptions in the model:
The model assumes individuals who are newly infected become infectious themselves the following day, and then remain infectious for exactly 14 days, after which they either become immune (and non-infectious) or die (and are therefore non-infectious).
You can change the 14-day window in this spreadsheet by altering the references starting with cell E41 which references C27 (notice the difference between the row numbers is 14). Because of the “lag time” calculations, you have to manually alter these cells yourself to create whatever lag time window you want to simulate (such as 10 days, or 20 days). These changes must of course be carried to all subsequent cells in the spreadsheet.
Feel free to run your own projections. Try R0 values of 3.0 or higher to see what happens (if you dare…)
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About the author: Mike Adams (aka the “Health Ranger“) is a best selling author (#1 best selling science book on Amazon.com called “Food Forensics“), an environmental scientist, a patent holder for a cesium radioactive isotope elimination invention, a multiple award winner for outstanding journalism, a science news publisher and influential commentator on topics ranging from science and medicine to culture and politics. Follow his videos, podcasts, websites and science projects at the links below.
Mike Adams serves as the founding editor of NaturalNews.com and the lab science director of an internationally accredited (ISO 17025) analytical laboratory known as CWC Labs. There, he was awarded a Certificate of Excellence for achieving extremely high accuracy in the analysis of toxic elements in unknown water samples using ICP-MS instrumentation. Adams is also highly proficient in running liquid chromatography, ion chromatography and mass spectrometry time-of-flight analytical instrumentation. He has also achieved numerous laboratory breakthroughs in the programming of automated liquid handling robots for sample preparation and external standards prep.
The U.S. patent office has awarded Mike Adams patent NO. US 9526751 B2 for the invention of “Cesium Eliminator,” a lifesaving invention that removes up to 95% of radioactive cesium from the human digestive tract. Adams has pledged to donate full patent licensing rights to any state or national government that needs to manufacture the product to save human lives in the aftermath of a nuclear accident, disaster, act of war or act of terrorism. He has also stockpiled 10,000 kg of raw material to manufacture Cesium Eliminator in a Texas warehouse, and plans to donate the finished product to help save lives in Texas when the next nuclear event occurs. No independent scientist in the world has done more research on the removal of radioactive elements from the human digestive tract.
Adams is a person of color whose ancestors include Africans and American Indians. He is of Native American heritage, which he credits as inspiring his “Health Ranger” passion for protecting life and nature against the destruction caused by chemicals, heavy metals and other forms of pollution.
Adams is the author of the world’s first book that published ICP-MS heavy metals analysis results for foods, dietary supplements, pet food, spices and fast food. The book is entitled Food Forensics and is published by BenBella Books.
In addition to his lab work, Adams is also the (non-paid) executive director of the non-profit Consumer Wellness Center (CWC), an organization that redirects 100% of its donations receipts to grant programs that teach children and women how to grow their own food or vastly improve their nutrition. Through the non-profit CWC, Adams also launched Nutrition Rescue, a program that donates essential vitamins to people in need. Click here to see some of the CWC success stories.
With a background in science and software technology, Adams is the original founder of the email newsletter technology company known as Arial Software. Using his technical experience combined with his love for natural health, Adams developed and deployed the content management system currently driving NaturalNews.com. He also engineered the high-level statistical algorithms that power SCIENCE.naturalnews.com, a massive research resource featuring over 10 million scientific studies.
About the author: Mike Adams (aka the “
