by Joe Martino, Collective Evolution:

[As of March 16th, an update had been applied to this post. See Below.]

In a PubMed study out of China published March 5th, 2020 titled Potential False-Positive Rate Among the ‘Asymptomatic Infected Individuals’ in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients, researchers found that there may be a substantial issue with testing methods that is leading to a high number of false-positive readings.

As indicated in the abstract of the study, those who were asymptomatic, which means showing no signs of illness or disease, and who were in close contact with CVOID-19 patients, were likely to be tested positive falsely. As outlined in the study:

“In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.”

“Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.”

I initially found this to be inspiring as it may mean that many cases where people are sick may actually just cases of influenza. I am continuing to do research on this.

Although nothing is confirmed yet, and perhaps new testing methods are emerging, it’s possible that the reason for poor accuracy in testing is due to the fact that the virus itself was not properly isolated and purified to create accurate testing. This would be in accordance with Koch’s postulates which suggest that in order to accurately identify a virus and test for it one must follow 4 key steps.

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