That same model originally predicted 2.1 million deaths in the USA by July 4th if nothing was done to achieve social distancing and aggressive isolation. I published that model at a time when President Trump was still in the denial stage, and when there were barely in deaths in the USA. At that time, most people couldn’t fathom even 500 deaths happening in the USA.
Fortunately, some governors and mayors came to their senses and measures were put in place over the last two weeks to achieve strong social distancing — with now almost 30% of the US population under lockdown — which means the catastrophic worst case scenario has been avoided.
However, we’re still in a scenario where probably tens of thousands of deaths in the USA cannot be avoided, and we’ll be lucky to get out of this with fewer than 250,000 fatalities in the USA. At the same time, the economic impacts of the shutdown, of course, will be devastating to the economy in the short term.
To understand why we’re still on track for a flood of fatalities in the weeks ahead, compare my original pandemic projections with the actual number of deaths from the coronavirus that have been recorded. The following chart also shows you the future dates and projections from my original projection model:
USA deaths from coronavirus – original projections released early March, 2020 – since revised with stronger social distancing factors
Date
Projected Deaths
Actual Deaths
6-Mar
13
17
7-Mar
15
19
8-Mar
18
22
9-Mar
22
23
10-Mar
26
30
11-Mar
30
32
12-Mar
35
41
13-Mar
40
50
14-Mar
47
54
15-Mar
54
60
16-Mar
62
79
17-Mar
71
100
18-Mar
81
143
19-Mar
92
179
20-Mar
104
264
21-Mar
118
344
22-Mar
134
388 (so far)
23-Mar
151
24-Mar
170
25-Mar
191
26-Mar
215
27-Mar
241
28-Mar
270
29-Mar
303
30-Mar
338
31-Mar
378
1-Apr
421
2-Apr
469
3-Apr
521
4-Apr
580
5-Apr
644
6-Apr
714
7-Apr
791
8-Apr
877
9-Apr
970
10-Apr
1073
11-Apr
1186
12-Apr
1310
13-Apr
1446
14-Apr
1595
15-Apr
1758
16-Apr
1938
17-Apr
2134
18-Apr
2349
19-Apr
2585
20-Apr
2844
21-Apr
3127
22-Apr
3436
23-Apr
3775
24-Apr
4147
25-Apr
4553
26-Apr
4997
27-Apr
5483
28-Apr
6015
29-Apr
6597
30-Apr
7233
It’s now rather obvious that we will have far more than 7,233 deaths by April 30th. Then again, the lockdowns and isolation orders will most definitely flatten the curve quite dramatically in another 3-5 weeks, so I do expect real fatalities to diverge from this model quite dramatically toward the end of April.
And that’s the good news in all this. The lockdowns break the cycle of exponential spread. Lockdowns work because the Wuhan coronavirus spreads from person to person, obviously. So stopping the spread requires people to stop coming into social contact for a period of time.
If you thought New Yorkers were out of their minds right now, imagine nine months in lockdown… not a pretty picture.
So we’re looking at, earliest, mid-June before America starts to get back on its feet again. The question is whether America can make it to June under lockdown status without people losing their minds over the shortages of food and nationwide “house arrest.” Sadly, I don’t have an answer to that question at this time. We’ll know a lot more by the end of March. But I will share something with you: Being able to walk my ranch with goats and donkeys sure seems like an amazing luxury right now, even though I have been mocked for living in the country and caring for animals in years past. (Funny how everything changes overnight, right?)
There’s one other thing I do know for sure: I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near a large city right now, and especially not Los Angeles, as LA County just yesterday announced a surrender to the virus, telling doctors to stop testing for infections because the battle was already lost and the epidemic was far beyond containment there.
Seriously, it’s starting to turn into a Kurt Russell action movie, “Escape from New York / L.A.”
Read more at Pandemic.news if you want to stay alive and survive all this.
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About the author: Mike Adams (aka the “Health Ranger“) is a best selling author (#1 best selling science book on Amazon.com called “Food Forensics“), an environmental scientist, a patent holder for a cesium radioactive isotope elimination invention, a multiple award winner for outstanding journalism, a science news publisher and influential commentator on topics ranging from science and medicine to culture and politics. Follow his videos, podcasts, websites and science projects at the links below.
Mike Adams serves as the founding editor of NaturalNews.com and the lab science director of an internationally accredited (ISO 17025) analytical laboratory known as CWC Labs. There, he was awarded a Certificate of Excellence for achieving extremely high accuracy in the analysis of toxic elements in unknown water samples using ICP-MS instrumentation. Adams is also highly proficient in running liquid chromatography, ion chromatography and mass spectrometry time-of-flight analytical instrumentation. He has also achieved numerous laboratory breakthroughs in the programming of automated liquid handling robots for sample preparation and external standards prep.
The U.S. patent office has awarded Mike Adams patent NO. US 9526751 B2 for the invention of “Cesium Eliminator,” a lifesaving invention that removes up to 95% of radioactive cesium from the human digestive tract. Adams has pledged to donate full patent licensing rights to any state or national government that needs to manufacture the product to save human lives in the aftermath of a nuclear accident, disaster, act of war or act of terrorism. He has also stockpiled 10,000 kg of raw material to manufacture Cesium Eliminator in a Texas warehouse, and plans to donate the finished product to help save lives in Texas when the next nuclear event occurs. No independent scientist in the world has done more research on the removal of radioactive elements from the human digestive tract.
Adams is a person of color whose ancestors include Africans and American Indians. He is of Native American heritage, which he credits as inspiring his “Health Ranger” passion for protecting life and nature against the destruction caused by chemicals, heavy metals and other forms of pollution.
Adams is the author of the world’s first book that published ICP-MS heavy metals analysis results for foods, dietary supplements, pet food, spices and fast food. The book is entitled Food Forensics and is published by BenBella Books.
In addition to his lab work, Adams is also the (non-paid) executive director of the non-profit Consumer Wellness Center (CWC), an organization that redirects 100% of its donations receipts to grant programs that teach children and women how to grow their own food or vastly improve their nutrition. Through the non-profit CWC, Adams also launched Nutrition Rescue, a program that donates essential vitamins to people in need. Click here to see some of the CWC success stories.
With a background in science and software technology, Adams is the original founder of the email newsletter technology company known as Arial Software. Using his technical experience combined with his love for natural health, Adams developed and deployed the content management system currently driving NaturalNews.com. He also engineered the high-level statistical algorithms that power SCIENCE.naturalnews.com, a massive research resource featuring over 10 million scientific studies.
About the author: Mike Adams (aka the “
