by Daisy Luther, The Organic Prepper:

Back when the New Year rolled around, did you ever expect you’d spend months in lockdown, unable to go eat at a restaurant or visit with friends? 2020 has been full of surprises, but more of the “angry clown with a chainsaw” variety than “here, have some flowers.”

As the time for this lockdown to end draws near, spend some time reflecting on what you learned about preparedness and what you need to do before the next lockdown rolls around. (It’s almost inevitable there’ll be a next lockdown – more on that in a moment.)

There will probably be another wave of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 virus is not just going to vanish magically after we’ve stayed in our homes for a certain number of days. The virus will still be out there when the lockdown is over and people will still get sick from it.

At some point, the dreaded “second wave” will occur. Some experts think this will occur almost immediately after lockdown ends, while others believe there’s a seasonal link and it will strike in the fall. To be perfectly honest, at this point it’s too soon to know. There are a few muffled reports out of China about a possible second wave, but accurate information from China has been impossible to get since the very beginning.

We also don’t know whether the virus confers lasting immunity to those who have had it – some reports suggest there is no immunity while other reports say antibodies in the plasma of those who had it can help treat others fighting the illness.

We have no real data on this and no point of accurate comparison. We don’t know if the second wave will be worse than the first, or milder, or affect fewer people. But just consider it extremely likely that it will happen in some way or another, at some point or another.

When the second wave starts, expect another period of lockdown.

As I mentioned above, there are reports out of China about a previously unaffected city of 10 million people, Harbin, which has just been locked down in the past two weeks. We’re likely to see the effects of opening up several states here in the US over the next couple of weeks – either for better or worse.

If it turns out to be seasonal, the second wave would be most likely to begin in October. And now, health specialists know what to look for so it’s likely the re-emergence will be identified fairly quickly.

Whenever a surge occurs, whether it’s next month or next fall, expect another round of lockdowns. Several experts have said we could be looking at periods of lockdown “until there’s a vaccine.”

In his wildly popular March 19 article in Medium, “Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance,” Tomas Pueyo correctly predicted the national lockdown, which he called the hammer, and said it would lead to a new phase, which he called the dance, in which essential parts of the economy could reopen, including some schools and some factories with skeleton crews.

Every epidemiological model envisions something like the dance. Each assumes the virus will blossom every time too many hosts emerge and force another lockdown. Then the cycle repeats. On the models, the curves of rising and falling deaths resemble a row of shark teeth.

Surges are inevitable, the models predict, even when stadiums, churches, theaters, bars and restaurants remain closed, all travelers from abroad are quarantined for 14 days, and domestic travel is tightly restricted to prevent high-intensity areas from reinfecting low-intensity ones.

The tighter the restrictions, experts say, the fewer the deaths and the longer the periods between lockdowns. Most models assume states will eventually do widespread temperature checks, rapid testing and contact tracing, as is routine in Asia. (source)

It’s just like the things mentioned above, however – we’re basing this on models and educated guesses, but we don’t know for sure what will happen or when it will happen. But we’re pretty sure something will happen.

So what you need to do is get ready for it. You’ll have an advantage next time around. This won’t be your first rodeo and you are of a preparedness mindset, so you will use what you’ve learned.

What do you wish you’d done differently?

It’s easy to play quarterback after the game is done, but this exercise isn’t about beating yourself up. It’s about learning from your experience.

• Is there anything you wish you’d done differently?


• What food did you run out of the fastest?


• Were there non-food supplies you didn’t think to buy?


• Was there anything that broke and you didn’t have the necessary tools or supplies to repair it?


• About what item did you think, “Dang, I wish I had XXXXXX?”


• Were there people who hunkered down with you who made things difficult or unpleasant? How can you make it better with those folks in the future? And will you even want them to come over next time?


• Are there things you could have prepared to keep your kids or other family members more content?

Ask yourself these questions while you’ve got some time to sit and contemplate the lockdown. The things you wish you’d done differently are going to be very important things to address for the future.

What are the things you were satisfied with?

Luckily, we all probably had more successes than failures in this lockdown, so think about the successes. Here are a few examples of some things that may have worked well for you.

• You had enough in your emergency fund to cover any shortfalls.


• You were able to make tasty, nutritious, and filling meals from your supplies.


• You didn’t need to leave the house for X amount of time for groceries.


• You and your family bonded and enjoyed spending this time together.


• You discovered your group worked really well together.


• You did something productive with your time at home.

So for you, what were the things that worked and how can you replicate those things in the future?

Make some notes.

Go over the two lists you’ve made and start a third list of the things you either need to buy or need to do before the next time there’s a lockdown. Using the examples above:

• Get more ingredients for favorite meals.


• Restock your pantry so you can hunker down for a couple of months.


• Get a larger quantity of the things you ran out of first.


• Get any needed tools and repair materials.


• Grab multiples of the things you may have forgotten like shampoo, soap, toothbrushes, etc.


• Get some things to stash away for future entertainment purposes.


• Figure out how to extricate yourself from partnerships that didn’t work.


• For partnerships that did work, make sure they’re on the same page for next time around.


• Do an inventory of supplies so you can replenish the things you used.

This is something that will take longer than 15-20 minutes at the kitchen table. Really spend some time being thorough with regard to this self-analysis.

Look at your budget.

Millions of Americans saw dramatic changes in their incomes over the past months. This is an important factor in future preparations.

If you’re just barely managing to pay your bills, you may have difficulty stocking up for Round 2. If this is the case, you’ll need to take a close look at your budget.

• Be sure to take advantage of whatever the government is offering in the way of financial assistance. (Get more information on that right here.)


• Talk to your creditors and see if they’ll work with you.


• Try a month of flat-broke eating. to put aside some cash for stockpiling.


• Add just a few extra things per week. You might not want to bother waiting for sales – a lot of companies are not planning on doing promotions any time soon.


• Don’t spend frivolously. I know it feels like we’re just about to get out of prison, but if you go and spend hundreds of dollars eating at restaurants, you’re really going to regret it when the next lockdown rolls around and you don’t have enough supplies.


• See if there are any fixed expenses you can cut.

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