by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:

Presume the following, all of which are facts:

1. CDC says we have 10x as many people who have had Coronavirus as were tested (e.g. for every symptomatic tested we have 10 who never were and are either asymptomatic or think it’s something else — they sneeze, etc)  By the way, they really do say this — that’s not conjecture on my part.

2. We know there is material cross-immunity.  We knew this in February (Diamond Princess)

3. NY has recorded 390,000 positives.  Multiply by 10, that’s 3.9 million people.  This is almost-exactly 20% of the population.

4. If 50%, more or less, have cross-immunity the remaining susceptible population is approximately 30%.

HERD SUPPRESSION IS 66%, MORE OR LESS, FOR AN R0 OF 3.0.

This is why you can loot, burn and riot in NY, with zero social distancing, and nothing happens.  There should have been tens of thousands of primary infections from that event and over 100,000 secondary infections before the primary infected persons got sick enough to seek treatment in NY.  The facts are that this didn’t happen.

Incidentally 64% of NY State’s population is in the NYC Metro; it’s a monstrous percentage.

Illinois?  140,000 cases.  1.4 million infected, or ~11% of the population.  50% is immune.  That’s 61%, or within spitting distance of 66%, which is why they rioted, looted and burned, all with no social distancing, and nothing happened.  Like NY, 9.5 million of Illinois’ people are in one place — Metro Chicago, which is a monstrous 75% of the entire state’s residents.

Now look at Florida.  114,000 positive tests, so 1.14 million actually infected.  Florida has 21.5 million residents, so ~5.3%.  Cross-immunity is still 50%, so now it’s 55%, roughly.  You cannot get an exponential detonation since 66% is only 10% away, but you can get significant community transmission.  Where did you get it?  In the major metros where BLM loot/protest fests occurred starting a month ago.  Where didn’t you get it?  Everywhere else.

Arizona’s spike was mostly Maricopa county (Phoenix.)  Arizona has had 63,000 positives, so 630,000.  Arizona has 7.2 million residents, so again we run the math and find a decent community spike can happen but an exponential detonation cannot.

Wait, you say… what?  Exponential detonation cannot?  Why not.

Because it never could anywhere in the United States and in fact it never did.

It also never did anywhere else in the world.

Look at the curves; you will find that the doomsday scenario never happened anywhere, whether lockdowns were taken or not.

That’s because with the cross-immunity already present in the population of the world it couldn’t; once you get to about half of suppression the transmission rate is dampened enough that the pattern cannot happen.

The CDC and everyone else assumed originally in all their models, and the IHME and others still do, that it can happen because they presumed that everyone was and is today susceptible.  So Florida has only seen 0.5% penetration, New York 2%, etc.

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