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Will History Repeat Itself? Professor Who Has Called Every Election Since 1984 Names 2020 Winner
from Sputnik News:
While US President Donald Trump has been narrowing the gap in recent weeks with presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden both in national polling and in some key battlegrounds, the RealClearPolitics national average shows him trailing the former vice-president by just over six points.
Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, is known as the “Nostradamus” of presidential elections, having correctly predicted the winner of every White House race since Ronald Reagan’s reelection triumph in 1984.
Lichtman finally pronounced his verdict for 2020, in a video for The New York Times published on 5 August, giving the definitive answer:
“The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year.”
Many thought they knew who would win the presidential election in 2016. Professor Allan Lichtman actually did. In this video, Professor Lichtman walks us through the 13 “keys” to winning the White House, and what the keys predict for 2020. https://t.co/oqwVozLvFq pic.twitter.com/JSq0lN8dtB
— New York Times Opinion (@nytopinion) August 5, 2020
The professor uses a system of “13 keys” for his predictions that include such factors as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals.
Each key is a binary statement which can be answered as either true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the current incumbent of the White House is seemingly on their way out.
The “keys” also factor in a candidate’s personal charisma.
“The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don’t pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that’s what the keys gauge. The big picture,” Lichtman was quoted by CNN as saying.
Currently, polls say presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a lead over President Donald Trump. But as the results of the previous election in 2016 have shown, polls can be flawed. At the time, national and state election polling had consistently projected Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, as defeating Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, author of the renowned book Keys to the White House, has accurately called presidential victors from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to Donald Trump in 2016.
Back in 1980 the academic developed his presidential prediction model that, retrospectively, accounted for 120 years of US election history.
