by Jim Rickards, Daily Reckoning:

The presidential election is now less than three months away. A lot can happen in three months. But today I’m issuing a blockbuster election prediction that might shock you.

I’m not doing it to attract attention or to be controversial. I’m doing it because I believe the data point in that direction.

I’ll reveal my prediction in a moment. First let’s step back and look at the bigger picture.

First of all, when you want to know what’s really going on, pay no attention to the media, the elites or any conventional wisdom.

The Echo Chamber

The elites may have their plans, but they exist in a bubble of other elites and don’t get enough real world input to understand events. They arrive at conclusions in an echo chamber and just repeat them, but they’re always wrong.

The few who really do control events keep their cards close to the vest and don’t discuss their plans publicly.

The media are either in on the joke as accomplices on the elite plan or are just a megaphone for the elite echo chamber.

There’s no independent thought or real investigative journalist left (with just a few exceptions). Conventional wisdom is just that — convention. It cannot go outside the box.

Talking heads on TV would rather all be wrong together than try to be right if it means going out on a limb. So, you really can’t expect reliable election coverage from the media.

The Media Really Doesn’t Understand the American People

And they really don’t understand the American people.

Americans are amazingly pragmatic when it comes to elections. The politicians, campaign managers and pundits may use a wide array of digital analytics, huge media buys, polls, focus groups, and websites to shape public opinion, but voters remain balanced and focused on what counts.

Voters don’t care about the horserace polls and constant chatter about who’s up or who’s down. They focus on the candidate’s character, performance and campaign promises for the next few years.

These key factors do not always cut the same way. Many dislike Trump’s personal conduct, but think highly of his policies of lower taxes, less regulation and bringing back American jobs from China. They will make up their minds on that basis.

The bottom line is that the American people are much smarter than the political elites give credit and less susceptible to the attack ads, debates and name-calling that go on.

One trait that Americans look for in a candidate and can spot easily is fear. If Americans detect fear in a candidate they will smell trouble and possibly vote for his opponent.

Biden Is Confined to His Basement

It certainly seems that Biden is afraid to come out of his basement. He’s afraid to do press conferences where softball questions are not scripted in advance with friendly reporters. (Even when the questions are scripted, Biden has difficulty answering).

He’s afraid to go to the Democratic convention in person where he would have to face other officials and the media.

When Americans smell fear, they ask: Why?

Why would Biden be afraid to come out of his house and face the rough-and-tumble of American politics including reporters, debates, voters and opposing candidates?

By now the answer is clear.

The sad answer is that Biden’s cognitive ability has declined radically. The decline has gone so far and so fast, he can’t handle any of that exposure.

“Step Function”

It’s evident Biden’s suffered a major drop in his cognition recently (on top of the prior drops).  Incidentally, he’s not suffering from a continuous downhill slide. Instead, it’s what’s called a “step function.”

That means the mental ability drops suddenly, then stabilizes or plateaus for a while, then drops again. It never improves, but it can appear stable for a time until the next sudden drop comes.

Any effort to get out in public would make his deficiencies crystal clear to all. His handlers and the media really can’t hide it any longer.

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