by Jim Rickards, Daily Reckoning:

I’ve argued recently that Joe Biden’s dramatic cognitive decline will force Democratic Party leadership to deny him the nomination and replace him with someone else. I stand by that. But today let’s just assume that Biden is the actual nominee. What’s the case for a Biden win in November?

The case for Biden begins with the dismal state of the economy. Only three presidents in the past 100 years have lost a reelection bid: Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H. W. Bush in 1992. What they had in common was a recession close to the election. All presidents who sought reelection and did not have a recession won.

Trump was in the “no recession” category and headed toward an easy reelection until last February when the pandemic hit. Now, Trump is in the same category as Hoover, Carter and Bush 41 and possibly headed toward a recession-related defeat.

Second-quarter GDP, which collapsed at a 32.9% annualized rate, certainly didn’t help Trump. The fight is made worse by the fact that we’re not just in a technical recession (in fact, the recession may be over already), but we’re in a depression that may last for years.

Trump has been touting the fact that unemployment fell from 14.7% in April to 13.3% in May, to 11.1% in June and 10.2% in July. That’s progress; but it’s not the whole story.

The official unemployment number ignores individuals without jobs who were subject to misclassification in the statistics gathering, and those who don’t have jobs but are not actively looking. There’s also a category of those working part-time involuntarily, who would prefer full-time jobs.

When you include family members of those losing jobs, the adverse impact of unemployment has hit more than 50% of the U.S. workforce directly or indirectly. This is an economic disaster and it feeds the perception that Biden can do better on the economy than Trump.

Biden has selected Kamala Harris as his choice for Vice President. She has credentials that are more progressive and left-wing than Biden himself. She’s reliably left on issues such as health care, guns, abortion, the environment, etc. The choice may hurt Biden with some swing voters, but it will sit well with the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party and solidify Biden’s base and his fundraising ability.

Here’s another factor that weighs in favor of Biden: Trump himself.

The world has changed, but Trump has not. He’s still running around talking about “Sleepy Joe” and “Crooked Hillary” and “Dirty Cop James Comey,” and nobody cares. Trump talks about the stock market and nobody cares. All people care about is the virus and their jobs or businesses. Trump is trapped in the White House bubble and is isolated. He has lost touch with the American people. The people have noticed.

Trump’s been sleepwalking through this campaign. And that’s a good way to lose.

Trump has also not articulated a vision for his second term. The first thing I learned when I was a Washington lobbyist is: “You can’t beat something with nothing.” Biden may be a weak candidate, but at least he puts out policy positions on a regular basis.

You may agree or disagree, but he’s articulated what he wants. Where is Trump’s policy for a second term? What will he do on taxes? Will he make friends with China or reignite the trade wars? What happened to The Wall?

Last month, Biden announced a Buy American campaign. That’s a major embarrassment for Trump. Buy American is supposed to be one of Trump’s bread and butter issues. How on earth did Biden beat Trump to the punch in terms of announcing a Buy American plan? Trump should own the issue, but now Biden does.

Trump’s big campaign innovation in 2016 was the stadium rally. He did them all over the country to huge audiences and they worked. But, that tactic is now neutralized by the lockdowns.

Trump is trying to run the 2016 playbook, but it’s not 2016 anymore and it’s not even the same world we lived in last February. Everything has changed; Trump hasn’t.

He had a chance to attain the stature of FDR in the Great Depression or Ronald Reagan at the end of the Cold War. Trump missed his chance because he did not understand the historical change that has taken place in the past six months.

In summary, the world has changed but Trump has not. He’s out of touch with the American people. He’s not responding to their needs. He’s not offering comfort, confidence or leadership.

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