by Matt Vespa, Townhall:
I’ll say it again, folks. The polling is screwed. It’s skewed. It’s a mess. Either we’re right to be highly skeptical and Trump wins an Electoral College landslide, or the pollsters are right and we’re heading for Armageddon come Election Day. Still, the oversampling of Democrats, college-educated voters, and suburban Republicans hostile to Trump should bring a ton of scrutiny. The reluctance for some of these clown firms to switch to likely voter samples is also suspect. We’re not going to have a 2008 or 2012 electorate. For starters, a new Hill-Harris poll noted that young Americans are not excited about this election at all. They’re not planning on voting. Gallup reportedly said that youth interest in voting this cycle hit its lowest levels since 2000. That’s in keeping with the results from Democracy Institute’s Patrick Basham, whose polling data, which has been mentioned in The Washington Times and Forbes, suggests there will be 1 million fewer young people voting this cycle.
JUST OUT: Hill-Harris X research documents that Younger Voters are not excited about this election. Note one of their Headlines:
"Hill-Harris X Research Shows Younger Voters Are Consistently More Likely to Say They Do Not Plan to Vote…"
Video below:https://t.co/2nm73wHcpQ
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
Zogby Analytics:
Trump Approval at 51%
(poll released on Oct 9; 833 likely voters; conducted 9/25-27) pic.twitter.com/cvTLFBlvH3
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 9, 2020
Basham spoke with Joseph Cotto about his new data. PollWatch had a good thread summarizing the interview. Democracy Institute’s poll had a sample size of 1,500 likely voters, where Trump lead Joe Biden by one point. He also noted that the “shy Trump” vote is very much alive and will be bigger this time. Suburban white women and urban black women are the two groups that are most likely to fall into the shy category for the 2020 cycle. That latter part should shake Democrats to their core. And as for Florida, a state that Biden must carry, it could already be out of his reach. Basham noted Trump cannot fall asleep at the wheel, but things are becoming more comfortable for him in the Sunshine State. And based on some recent polling from the state, it looks like the tide has shifted solidly in favor of the president.
1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:
Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from + 3 to + 1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from + 7 to + 4.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:
Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from + 3 to + 1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from + 7 to + 4.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020
1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:
Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from + 3 to + 1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from + 7 to + 4.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 7, 2020