by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

Four years ago, I went on national television just prior to the election and declared that if Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton it would be the greatest political miracle in the history of the United States, and that is precisely what we got.  Trump miraculously won the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by a combined total of less than 100,000 votes, and he won the presidency even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a margin of nearly 3 million.  Well, now here we are again.  Joe Biden’s lead in the national polls is even greater than the lead that Hillary Clinton had in 2016, and if Trump ends up winning it will be an even greater political miracle than we witnessed four years ago.

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Could it happen?

Yes, there is a very real possibility that Trump could win, and I explained exactly how it could unfold in an article that I posted yesterday.

But it won’t be easy.

Let’s take a look at how Trump is faring in the most critical swing states compared to where he stood just before the last election.

-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Florida polls had Trump up by 0.2 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Florida polls has him trailing Biden by 1.8 points.

-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of North Carolina polls had Trump up by 1.0 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of North Carolina polls has him up by just 0.2 points.

-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Arizona polls had Trump up by 4.0 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Arizona polls has him trailing Biden by 0.9 points.

-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polls had Trump down by 6.5 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Wisconsin polls has him trailing Biden by 6.7 points.

-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Michigan polls had Trump down by 3.4 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Michigan polls has him trailing Biden by 5.1 points.

-In 2016, the final RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania polls had Trump losing by 1.9 points, but in 2020 the current RCP average of Pennsylvania polls has him trailing Biden by 2.6 points.

So Trump is theoretically doing worse in each of those key swing states that he was in 2016.

Like I said, it is going to take a bigger miracle than we witnessed four years ago for Trump to pull this off, but it could definitely happen.

On election night itself, the most important state to focus on will be Florida.  As I discussed in a previous article, Florida is one of the states that allows mail-in ballots to be counted in advance, and we should have a really good idea of what the results are going to look like in the state by the end of the night.

If Biden is declared the winner in Florida on election night, that is going to be a really, really bad sign for Trump.  There really isn’t a path to 270 electoral votes for Trump without Florida.

If Trump wins Florida, or if the vote is too close to call, then Pennsylvania becomes crucially important.

Unfortunately, Pennsylvania is one of the states that does not allow mail-in ballots to be counted in advance, and they are going to have millions of them to count.

At this point, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf is openly admitting that “it may take longer than usual to count every vote”…

‘These are unprecedented times. Because of the coronavirus, there were millions of votes cast by mail so it may take longer than usual to count every vote,’ he says in a new ad for the nonpartisan group, The Voter Project.

‘The folks in our election offices – your neighbors, family and friends are working hard ensuring every single vote is counted,’ he says.

Pennsylvania is supposed to have every vote counted by Friday, but I am deeply skeptical that will actually happen.

In fact, it is now being reported that there are seven Pennsylvania counties that will not even begin counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday…

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