by Jim Rickards, Daily Reckoning:

The major news outlets have declared Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 presidential election based partly on a projection that Biden would win Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.

Well, maybe, maybe not.

Projections are not official certifications let alone final votes in the Electoral College (the composition of which will not be determined until December 8. The actual Electoral College vote for President happens on December 14).

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In particular, the Pennsylvania outcome is based on counting several hundred thousand mail-in ballots that were received after Election Day.

Pennsylvania state law passed by the legislature requires that mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court (dominated by elected Democrats) ordered that mail-in ballots could be counted if they were received up to three days after Election Day.

The Constitution

But the U.S. Constitution clearly says that state election laws are to be set by the “legislature” of each state. Trump claims that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision is unconstitutional because it violates the requirement that legislatures set the rules.

That claim is now headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. If that court agrees with Trump, then the late Pennsylvania ballots could be discarded, and Trump would win Pennsylvania.

Numerous challenges are working their way through the system. The processes and deadlines in several states could change the outcome of the presidential election. Depending on what happens in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, Trump could still emerge a winner.

That’s a longshot, and I’m not holding my breath. But, we must consider all possible outcomes.

Even if Biden emerges as the winner, in the end, an even more decisive political race is yet to be decided — in fact, two races.

The Fight for the Senate

Going into election night, the Republicans held control of the U.S. Senate by a 53-47 margin (counting two independents with the Democrats). As of now, the winners in the Senate races would result in a 49-48 edge for Republicans with three seats undecided.

One of the undecided seats is in Alaska. The race has not officially been called because Alaska has many remote locations, and it takes time to round-up the ballots. But, the Republican candidate leads by a two-to-one margin, and all analysts agree the Republicans will hold that seat.

So, that puts the score at 50-48 in favor of Republicans. But, that’s still not control.

The Democrats will need 50 seats for control (where Vice President Kamala Harris can break a 50-50 tie) while Republicans need 51 seats for control, an outright majority.

Georgia on Our Minds

What’s up with the two missing seats? Both seats are in Georgia. That state has a peculiar rule that you cannot win a Senate race unless you get over 50% of the vote, even if you got more votes than your opponent.

On Election Day, no one got 50% in either of the two Senate races. This was because of third-party candidates and some Republicans fighting each other. Georgia law says in such cases, the two top contenders face a runoff election on January 5. With only two names on each ballot, someone must get 50% and be declared the winner.

One runoff involves Kelly Loeffler (Republican) versus Raphael Warnock (Democrat). The other runoff involves David Perdue (Republican) versus Jon Ossoff (Democrat).

Loeffler and Purdue are both incumbents today. If Republicans win one or both of these races, they keep control of the Senate. If Democrats win both of these races, they take control of the Senate.

Control of the Senate will be determinative of even bigger issues like the Green New Deal, statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington D.C., tax increases, packing the Supreme Court and more.

These changes will affect the shape of governance in the United States in a deleterious and irreversible way. Never have two Senate runoff elections been more important. Between now and January 5, we should all have Georgia on our minds.

But there’s one clear loser in this election — pollsters.

The Same Errors

We all recall how badly pollsters performed in the 2016 presidential election. Depending on the source, the odds of a Hillary Clinton victory were set at 90%, 92% or even 93%.

The results were expected to be an electoral college landslide, with Clinton keeping the west and northeast, maintaining her “blue wall” (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin) and even picking off some southern and mountain states expected to be friendly to Trump, especially Arizona.

None of this happened. Trump held Arizona, swept the blue wall and defeated Hillary Clinton 304 to 227 in the Electoral College. The pollsters were not even close to this result. Pollsters then promised they would mend their ways, consider their mistakes, adjust their models and deliver much more accurate results for the 2020 election.

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