The very slim majority held by Republicans in the House of Representatives could be about to dissolve, with Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisconsin) recently announcing his intention to retire when his current term comes to an end, making him the 15th House Republican who won’t be seeking reelection.

However, he then decided to move his timeline forward and resign his seat on April 19. He isn’t the only House Republican to resign since 2022; others include Kevin McCarthy, Bill Johnson and Ken Buck. In addition, George Santos was expelled in December.

Right now, Republicans hold 218 seats in the House, versus Democrats with 213. After Gallagher steps down next month, the House Republican majority will be just 217, which is the minimum needed for advancing legislation. This means the GOP will only be one more retirement away from losing the majority and letting Democrats regain control.

A twist to this story has some insiders suspecting something more is at play. If Gallagher were to retire even just a few days earlier than April 19, a special election for Republicans must be held under Wisconsin law to choose his replacement. However, by retiring on the 19th, his seat will stay vacant until the 2024 elections are held and the winner of his district is declared – and it could well end up being a Democrat.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is so outraged by the way he has chosen to time his resignation that she has called for him to be expelled from Congress beforehand to help the party hold onto its majority.

All of this needs to be considered in the context of the recent decision by the Supreme Court that Congress – rather than individual states – has the power to bar specific individuals from appearing on the presidential ballot. Therefore, it would be very difficult for Trump to be removed from the ballot if things remain as they are and the Republicans hold on to their majority in the House.

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If, however, the Democrats manage to regain control of the House prior to the election, it then becomes extremely likely that they will remove Trump from the presidential ballot, and with the slight majority they already hold in the Senate, they shouldn't have much trouble passing whatever they choose.

Megadonor has been trying to undermine Trump for years

At least for now, the biggest threat facing Trump's bid for another presidential term is coming from his own party – and whatever ultimately goes down could be the work of one particular megadonor to the Republican Party who has been trying to undermine Trump since he first launched his bid for the presidency in 2015.

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer spent $2.5 million on Marco Rubio's failed bid for the presidency in 2016 and donated $5 million to Nikki Haley’s campaign last month. She dropped out less than three months later, and now there is some speculation that Singer could be shifting his focus to helping Democrats regain control over the House by convincing some RINOS (Republicans In Name Only) to move aside.

Indeed, six out of the 14 Republicans who have said they won't be running for reelection in 2024 have received donations from Singer: Greg Pence, Blaine Luetkemeyer, Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Patrick McHenry. He has also donated to three of the four republican representatives who are retiring from the House before the 2024 elections: Ken Buck, Kevin McCarthy and Mike Gallagher.

Speculation about Singer's motives is supported by the fact that top-ranking House Democrat Jamie Raskin recently introduced legislation that could bar Trump from the presidential ballot and could easily take effect if the Democrats get a simple majority in the House.

Some analysts believe it is not a coincidence that most of the members of Congress who are either not seeking reelection or retiring have received donations from Singer. He has made no secret of his distaste for Trump, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to imagine him using his power to push some GOP officials to retire in a bid to get the former president off the ballot.

Sources for this article include:

Slingshot.news

NBCNews.com