by Daisy Luther, The Organic Prepper:

News about the situation in Haiti keeps circulating and making waves among the international community. It’ll soon be replaced by another issue of the moment, but it’s everywhere now, and even celebrities and artists are rushing to show support for the “wonderful Haiti,” praising the disgraced country’s enchantments.

Daisy’s report on the explosion of violence on the Caribbean island had commenters expressing their views as well, with many mentioning worries that something similar can happen in the US. She and Selco returned to the topic last week, posing a couple of rather pertinent questions at the end to stimulate the debate:

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“Do you use the situation in Haiti as a possible example of how bad the SHTF could really get? Or do you have a bunch of reasons why you believe you are different or somehow exempt from such things?”

My intention in writing a post to answer that is not to create a polemic, much less antagonize. It is just to provide a different point of view and why I think it matters for those who want to stay prepared for this specific type of SHTF.

To answer Daisy’s first question –

Yes, it makes sense to use Haiti as a case study.

As well as the Balkans, Lebanon, Argentina, WW2, or any other war or disaster. We take these and other historical events and analyze how far humans can go to create and survive SHTFs. Even though we’re doomed to repeat history, we can and do learn a lot from it individually.

However, I am of the opinion that something like that cannot and will not happen in the US, Europe, or other First World Nations. Not in the foreseeable future, if ever. Not even in less prominent and developed countries like mine (Brazil), Mexico, or Argentina. In other words, I see Haiti, Ecuador, or the Balkans as the exception.

That leads straight to the second question, and to me, it’s more a matter of probability than exemption. To be clear, I believe no one’s exempt from anything, so the Haitization or Balkanization of the US is possible, only highly unlikely.

Here’s why I think this.

Some stuff happens to X but not Y, and that applies to people as well to different nations and locations. Before getting into the why that is, let’s review some accepted facts:

1. Humans are capable of great violence and evil.


2. Society keeps destructive instincts under control. Repression systems, infrastructure, and a production system exist for the collective’s good and to provide the conditions for civilization to advance.


3. Once the “thin veneer or civilization” disappears, it’s all-out chaos, the regression of civilization. If the repression system or the production chain breaks down, that’s SHTF.

However, while thin, this “veneer of civilization” (the system) is stronger and more resilient than we think.

That’s particularly true in more advanced and wealthier (i.e., First World) nations, but as I said, also in ones a few stages below in development. Countries with solid traditions in democracy, robust institutions, and stronger educational and technological foundations go into crisis, shake, and tremble. They may even go to war, but they don’t fall as easily into anarchy.

We may debate the fact that Western institutions and values are discredited, being challenged, or under attack and the impact that process has on the pillars of modern civilization and the dynamics of society. Fine, but we cannot argue history so while all that spells “crisis”, it has happened many times before and doesn’t necessarily mean order and law will crumble in these places.

Things like social unrest, political instability, corruption, huge debts, and glitches in finance and the economy have been par for most of history. The older generations may have forgotten, and the newer ones are unaccustomed to that, so the whole Fourth Turning thing looks and feels like the end of times. But that’s just the normal state of the world. We’re living at the peak of civilization, and it keeps moving forward despite setbacks.

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