by Peter Schiff, Schiff Gold:

When unemployment and inflation cause skyrocketing incentives for thieves to steal industrial metals like copper, criminals rush for some of the biggest sources: critical infrastructure. That includes cell towers, water pipes, street lights, and rail lines. These copper heists threaten transportation, communication, municipal services, urban safety, and other essentials of modern life. 

The chaos they can cause can cost lives, too — for example, copper heists from railways can cause warning lights, intersection gates, and turnouts that divert trains to other tracks to go offline.

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World Bank analysts estimated that prices for base metals like copper and tin had peaked last year, and will decline further in 2024. Some reasons they cited included improving supply and decreasing demand due to widespread adoption of green energy initiatives, and a 52% reduction in the coal price in 2023 compared to the previous year. The report noted that high inflation will reduce demand, will it be enough to offset the speed at which fiat currencies are drained of their purchasing power? So far, the answer appears to be no.

If dollar inflation continues sufficiently unabated, the relative price of copper could continue to rise despite other factors. Other unexpected wrenches in the economy, like the recent closure of the Port of Baltimore, could also challenge the World Bank’s predictions. The Port of Baltimore was one of the US’s main exporters of coal, which could cause upward pressure on the global price of energy in an already-inflationary environment, and make metal smelting operations more expensive.

Copper futures dipped in May, after the World Bank released its report, but rose to a higher low in February, and have since been trending upward:

Copper Futures (USD/Lbs), April 2023 – March 2024

And as metal prices soar, so have incidents of theft that damage crucial infrastructure and multiply existing economic damage. Freight train accidents and delays, power and cellular blackouts, municipal sewer damage, and flooding and drainage issues from stolen gutters and pipes are just a few of the problems caused by 2024’s surging copper theft across America and the world.

Even real estate development projects can go over budget or become severely delayed when thieves snatch copper building materials from construction sites. The problem is so bad that in Los Angeles, a city councilmember declared the city is being “stripped” like an abandoned car:

L.A. is being ‘stripped for parts.’ Here’s what the City Council wants to do about it https://t.co/qnxj0rkKtB

— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) January 27, 2024

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