In the video below, Prof. John Mearsheimer describes Israel as an albatross around America’s neck, as having attempted to get the U.S. into a war with Iran for long time, and as playing “very dangerous game” by bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. This was recorded before the Iranian retaliation.

So far at least, the Biden administration is staying away from direct confrontation with Iran, stating, according to the NYTimes, that Israel’s “successful defense against Iranian airstrikes constituted a major strategic victory that might not require another round of retaliation.” But there will be intense pressure to do so:

Emotions were running high among Israeli officials during phone calls with American partners late into the night, and the pressure to fire back was consequently strong. The U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions, stressed that the decision was ultimately up to Israel. Israeli jets early Sunday hit structures in Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah after the Iranian-backed militia sent two explosive drones into Israel, but it was not clear how related that was to the Iranian airstrike.

And it’s no surprise that conservatives will blame Biden for his weakness:

That will generate criticism of Mr. Biden from conservatives, who quickly went public urging a powerful military reprisal against Iran — not only by Israel, but by the United States, as well. “We must move quickly and launch aggressive retaliatory strikes on Iran,” Senator Marsha Blackburn, Republican of Tennessee, said in a statement posted online.

Iran clearly doesn’t want this to escalate, as noted in my blog yesterday. But again, there can be little doubt that the entire motive for bombing the Iranian embassy is most reasonably interpreted as a desire by Israel to get into a war with Iran because they think they can win and they know that when push comes to shove, the U.S. will be on their side.

Even though Iran did little tangible damage, it signaled after Saturday night’s strike that it was ready to stand down — and clearly hoped to avoid direct engagement with the United States. “The matter can be deemed concluded,” the Iranian mission to the United Nations said in a statement. “However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”

And this, suggesting that Iran had no intention of doing much more than saving face:

While the number of drones and missiles fired at Israel was extraordinary, it did not go unnoticed that Iran telegraphed its intentions to attack for more than a week and announced the launch of the drones hours before they actually reached Israeli territory, giving plenty of notice for defenses. Some analysts interpreted that as meaning that Iran wanted to put on a show of force to save face after the killing of its officers but did not want a full-fledged war with Israel or the United States.

The situation was reminiscent of when in 2020 President Donald J. Trump ordered an airstrike in Iraq to kill Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, who led the powerful Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at well-defended U.S. bases in Iraq with relatively little damage, though about 100 U.S. military personnel were wounded. It then sent a private message saying it was done. Mr. Trump chose not to retaliate, and fears of a cycle of escalation faded.

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But Trump is not at all like the Israelis—he repeatedly advertised his non-interventionist stance during the 2016 campaign and resisted expanding U.S. involvement in Syria and tried to get U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. The Israelis on the other hand are extremely aggressive and would love to take out Iran and at least temporarily end their problems with Iran and the Arab world. As Alan Dershowitz said on Newsmax yesterday, Israel and the U.S. should not let this crisis go to waste but should topple the Iranian government—a result that would be greeted enthusiastically by Iranians. Haven’t we heard that before with Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan?

Judge Napolitano interviews Prof. John Mearsheimer prior to the Iranian attack. The first 15 minutes are on Ukraine and Russia (“Ukraine can’t win’), and at ~15:20 Mearsheimer discusses Israel and Gaza (both Mearsheimer and Napolitano use “genocide” to describe what’s going on there).